Know what has to be true for your startup to grow.
Turn acquisition, conversion, pricing, retention, and revenue assumptions into a model you can test, explain, and operate against — whether you're planning the business, preparing your pitch, or comparing the plan with real performance.
A forecast tells you where you want to go. A growth model shows what needs to happen to get there.
To know whether that target is plausible, the model asks:
- How many paying customers?
- At what ARPU or ACV?
- At what conversion rate?
- From how much traffic or pipeline?
- With what retention?
- At what acquisition cost?
The goal isn't to predict the future perfectly. It's to make the assumptions behind it explicit.
For the decisions you face before and after launch.
Before you launch
Turn your idea and target into a structured growth model — drivers, funnel, revenue requirements, and the assumptions your business depends on most.
Model the plan →Before you pitch investors
Connect the projections in your deck to the operating assumptions required to achieve them, test alternative scenarios, and walk in ready for the questions.
Pressure-test the pitch →Once the startup is live
Compare the original model with reality — where actuals differ from plan, which assumption explains the largest variance, and which lever deserves attention.
Review actual vs. plan →From target to operating model.
Define the goal
Clarify the business model, stage, primary growth goal, target and timeline.
Map the drivers
Identify the chain connecting acquisition to the outcome — traffic, conversion, customers, retention, revenue.
Quantify the assumptions
Put real values on acquisition, conversion, pricing, retention, sales and timing.
Simulate scenarios
Ask what happens if acquisition is 20% lower, or conversion improves — and which lever moves the outcome most.
Compare with reality
Once data exists, replace assumptions with observed performance, analyze variance, and revise the model.
Every forecast is built on assumptions.
The problem isn't that assumptions exist — it's not knowing what they are. Make them explicit, and the forecast becomes a model you can work with.
A growth model built around your business.
Depending on your stage and business type, the work can include:
The focus is on the growth drivers themselves — not just the rows of a financial forecast.
Your pitch deck has the numbers. The model has the story behind them.
Investors don't just look at a forecast — they examine the logic behind it. If you present a revenue target, you should be able to connect it back to:
A growth model is not a financial model.
What will revenue, costs and cash flow look like?
What actually has to happen for that revenue to exist?
Instead of starting from accounting lines, it starts from the drivers: acquisition, conversion, pricing, usage, retention, referral, sales.
Models by business type.
Illustrative — not universal templates.
Before you build the forecast, understand what has to be true.
Whether your startup is still an idea, preparing to raise, or already generating data — start by mapping the drivers behind the target.
Build Your Growth Model